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Savantii niponi au lansat un comunicat oficial in care avertizeaza autoritatile de la Tokyo in privinta declansarii unui taifun de dimensiuni gigantice care ar putea devasta Japonia in viitorul apropiat.
Principala cauza vinovata de aparitia unor asemenea catastrofe naturale este tot incalzirea globala ale carei efecte continua sa modifice parametrii climatologici din vestul Oceanului Pacific. Pe baza acestor noi date, simularile pe calculator vin cu vesti nu tocmai bune pentru locuitorii arhipelagului nipon. Conform estimarilor, pana in anul 2074, va creste incidenta taifunurilor cu vanturi de peste 288 km/ora, considerate taifunuri de gradul 3 pe scala Fujita care numara 5 nivele de forta.
Prin definitie, un super-taifun este un taifun care sufla cu viteza de 241 km/ora. Asemenea furtuni au o forta mult mai mare decat uraganul Katrina care a lovit statele americane din Golful Mexic in august 2005. Daca incalzirea globala continua in ritmul din prezent, in anul
2080 vestul Oceanului Pacific va fi cu 2 grade Celsius mai cald decat in prezent, conform specialistului Kazuhisa Tsuboki din cadrul Universitatii Nagoya.
"Pare o diferenta infima, dar va avea un mare inpact asupra unui taifun. Aceasta deoarece o mica schimbare a temperaturii apei oceanului va adauga o cantitate imensa de energie taifunului. In plus, ridicarea temperaturii aerului cu 2 grade va creste cantitatea de vapori de apa in straturile joase ale atmosferei, alimentand taifunul cu forte sporite", adauga profesorul Tsuboki.
Taifunurile din prezent acopera o raza cuprinsa intre 500-800 km. Chiar daca cele din viitor vor acoperi o suprafata mai mica, vor fi mai concentrate si mai puternice.
Increasingly powerful "supertyphoons" will strike Japan if global warming continues to affect weather patterns in the western Pacific Ocean, scientists say.
Supercomputer simulations show there will be more typhoons with winds of 179 miles (288 kilometers) per hour—considered an F3 on the five-level Fujita Scale—by 2074.
By definition, supertyphoons carry winds of at least 150 miles (241 kilometers) per hour.
(Related photo: "'Supertyphoon' Batters China Coast."
Such storms would be more destructive than Hurricane Katrina, which slammed into U.S. states along the Gulf of Mexico in August 2005.
"The most important factor in the creation of these typhoons is the warming of sea-surface temperatures in the western Pacific," said researcher Kazuhisa Tsuboki of Nagoya University.
Small but Severe
If global warming continues at its present pace, by 2080 the western Pacific Ocean will be 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) warmer, according to Tsuboki, who worked with a team from Japan's Meteorological Research Institute.
"That sounds like a small difference, but it will have a very big impact on a typhoon," Tsuboki said.
That's because even a relatively minor increase in seawater temperature adds an exponentially larger amount of energy to a storm, he said.
A rise in air temperature will also increase the amount of water vapor in the lower atmosphere, adding yet more fuel to the system.
Typhoons generally cover an area of between 311 and 497 miles (500 and 800 kilometers), Tsuboki said.
But to the researchers' surprise, the predicted supertyphoons will be smaller, stretching only 249 miles (400 kilometers).
However the storms will pack a far higher concentration of energy, wind speed, and overall destructive power.
Widespread Damage
The tempests would cause a great deal of damage across Japan, which is unprepared for such violent weather systems, Tsuboki said.
Ferocious winds would level homes and damage infrastructure such as bridges and power lines. Severe floods would also inundate low-lying areas.
The most destructive typhoon to strike Japan to date was Typhoon Vera, which barreled across the country in September 1959.
Known in Japan as the Isewan Typhoon, the storm came ashore in Ise Bay near Nagoya and killed 5,238 people.
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