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Tehnologia web-bot a mutat profetiile apocaliptice in era internetului, prezicand sfarsitul lumii in data de 21 decembrie 2012.
Teoreticienii conspiratiei care activeaza pe internet sustin acuratetea acestei profetii, mai ales ca, in opinia acestora, tehnologia web-bot a prezis si atacurile de la 11 septembrie, dar si tsunami-ul din 2004.
Software-ul, similar "paienjenilor" care verifica motoarele de cautare pentru a indexa paginile web, a fost dezvoltat in anii '90 cu scopul de a prezice fluctuatiile de la bursa. Principiul de functionare este simplu: programul ia in calcul paginile web relevante, inregistrand cuvintele-cheie si analizand contextul in care apar. Astfel, soft-ul iti permite sa arunci o privire scurta, dar relevanta in ceea ce se numeste "intelepicunea maselor", deoarece web-ul aduna laolalta gandurile a milioane de oameni. De aici pana la utilizarea acestei tehnologii in scopul prezicerii viitorului nu a mai fost decat un pas.
Pentru unii, studiul continutului web ar fi oferit un avertisment demn de luat in seama in legatura cu atacurile teroriste de la 11 septembrie. George Ure, unul dintre oamenii din spatele proiectului, sustine ca sistemul a prezis o schimbare majora in istoria lumii, care urma sa aiba loc intre 60 si 90 de zile dupa luna iunie 2001. Printre preziceri s-au mai numarat si tsunami-ul din 2004, ca si uraganul Katrina.
Insa cea mai noua profetie este legata de controversata data de 21 decembrie 2012. Se pare ca numeroase semnale s-au inregistrat in legatura cu data care ar putea sa coincida cu sfarsitul lumii, posibil din cauza inversarii polilor planetei. Teoria celor care cred in eficienta web-bot-ului pare sa fie sustinuta si de versiunea calendarului mayas, de Apocalipsa dupa Ioan sau de textul chinezesc I Ching.
Scepticii au insa o alta parere, gasind destul de multe lipsuri in aceasta teorie. In opinia acestora, este posibil ca internetul sa ofere date despre miscarile de la bursa sau despre atacuri teroriste, intrucat acestea sunt produse de oameni, insa nimeni nu poate stii cu exactitate cand poate avea loc un cataclism natural. In al doilea rand, predictiile sunt atat de vagi, incat majoritatea celor care vor sa creada au tendinta de a potrivi faptele prezicerilor si nu invers. De altfel, goana dupa profetii poate crea false profetii. Astfel, pe masura ce din ce in ce mai multi useri vor accesa si genera informatii despre aceasta data, cu atat mai multe date web vor arata catre 21 decembrie 2012 ca fiind sfarsitul lumii.
Conspiracy theorists on the web have claimed that the bots accurately predicted the September 11 attacks and the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami, and that they say a cataclysm of some sort will devastate the planet on 21 December, 2012.
The software, similar to the “spiders” that search engines use to index web pages, were originally developed in the 1990s to predict stock market movements.
The bots crawl through relevant web pages, noting keywords and examining the text around them. The theory is that this gives an insight into the “wisdom of crowds”, as the thoughts of thousands of people are aggregated.
However, the technology was later appropriated for another, more controversial – some say nonsensical – use: predicting the future.
Its study of “web chatter” is said to give advance warnings of terrorist attacks, and proponents claim that it successfully did so ahead of 11 September 2001. George Ure, one of two men behind the project, says that his system predicted a “world-changing event” in the 60 to 90 days after June 2001.
Despite the vagueness of this prediction, many believed it to be genuine. Now its makers claim that the technology can predict natural disasters, and that it foresaw the earthquake that triggered the 2004 tsunami, as well as Hurricane Katrina and the devastation that followed.
Its latest and most sweeping prediction is that 21 December 2012 signals the end of the world, possibly through a “polar shift” – when the polarity of the Earth’s magnetic field is reversed. Believers claim that as well as the bots, the 2012 apocalypse is predicted by the ancient Mayan calendar, the Book of Revelations, and the Chinese text I Ching.
Sceptics have pointed out several major flaws in the theory. First, the internet might plausibly reveal group knowledge about the stock market or, conceivably, terror attacks, as these are human-caused events. But, say critics, it would be no more capable of predicting a natural disaster than would a Google search.
Second, the predictions are so vague as to be meaningless, allowing believers to fit facts to predictions after the event: a blogger at dailycommonsense.com compares them to Nostradamus’s quatrains. They give the September 11 prediction as a case in point.
Third, the prophecies become self-distorting. “The more people publish about 2012 and the end of the world,” says the same blogger, “the more data web bots get pointing towards 2012.”
The polar shift theory is based on a genuine scientific theory, “geomagnetic reversal”, which suggests the Earth’s polarity shifts every few hundred thousand years. However, the theory in its current form is not reconcilable with the web-bot predictions of it taking place on a particular day in 2012: best estimates suggest each shift takes around 5,000 years to complete.
A film based on the predicted apocalypse, by The Day After Tomorrow director Roland Emmerich and starring John Cusack and Danny Glover, is due to come out in November, called 2012.
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